Abstrait

Evaluation of the North West Quality Improvement Programme risk prediction model as a 30-day mortality predictor

L Webster, I van der Linde, J Hampton-Till & JR Davies

Aim: Externally validate North West Quality Improvement Programme (NWQIP) risk model for complications following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); develop a 30-day mortality prediction model. Patients & methods: Retrospective analysis of 9279 PCI procedures from 2007 to 2012 in South East England. NWQIP discrimination and calibration was assessed for in-hospital complications and 30-day mortality. A risk model was created using logistic regression. Results: The receiver operating characteristic curve for NWQIP was 0.86; however, calibration was poor (p = 0.03). The custom receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88 (p = 0.67). Ventilation and peripheral vascular disease were novel predictors. Conclusion: NWQIP discriminates well. However, changing demographics, comorbidities and increasingly frequent high-risk PCI procedures produce poor calibration. A model for 30-day mortality is proposed yielding good discrimination and calibration.